Predictions
Predictions are how you put yourself in a position to get lucky. The point isn't research — it's putting a stake in the ground that you can be measured against. Each one is time-bound and falsifiable. Inspired by Superforecasting.
| Prediction | Conf. | Status | Made | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transition to a New World View By 2050 the rules of the game change — AI, clean-energy commoditization, and bioengineering converge into a New Enlightenment. | 70% | Open | Aug 2025 | Dec 2049 |
| Generative AI Social Media Accounts Autonomous-agent social media accounts will be indistinguishable from human accounts by July 31, 2025. | 90% | Correct | Feb 2025 | Jul 2025 |